the ICC and the plight of UNAMID

It seems that the Government of Sudan (GoS) has, for the moment, contented itself with a diplomatic reponse to the pending ICC indictment against its President Omar el-Bashir. Over the last week, it has lobbied intensely and successfully in both the African Union and the Arab League, the two regional bodies of which it is a member. Both bodies have released official statements condemning the ICC Prosecutor’s request for an indictment against Mr. Bashir. Teams of Sudanese diplomats have been shuttling between regional capitals – Libya, Egypt, Ethiopia. The goal seems to be to pressure the Security Council to block the issuance of an arrest warrant, either unilaterally, for fear of jeopardizing the non-existent peace process, or as part of a bargain, in exchange for a renewed effort by the government in securing peace in Darfur.

Nor is the government leaving it at that. They are openly and chillingly insinuating attacks against UN and humanitarian targets in Darfur should the indictments go through. Yesterday, a Sudanese presidential advisor said this:

“We are telling the world that with the indictment of our [P]resident al-Beshir we can’t be responsible for the well-being of foreign forces in Darfur.” (here)

In contrast, a few days ago President Bashir himself seemed to guarantee the safety of the peacekeeping force.

“You are our guests and our partners and we are ready to provide any assistance that will help you do your work.” (here)

Well informed observers do not take these kinds of assurances too seriously; rhetoric and practice are often worlds apart, nowhere more than in Sudan. While, on the flip side, this by no means guarantees attacks against foreigners in Darfur, if the ICC arrest warants are issued, there are good reasons to be wary.

Seven peacekeepers were killed and 22 injured in an ambush on July 8th in North Darfur; a UNAMID military officer in a remote town in West Darfur was shot and killed in an apparent robbery attempt, and this week, in El Fasher, a UN Security officer was beaten up by soldiers from the feared military intelligence apparatus, while investigating a traffic accident. All of these incidents, have been linked, with varying degrees of certainty, to government or government-aligned forces. It would appear that, while the government may not be ordering these attacks, neither are they actively and forcefully preventing those under their influence from perpetrating these crimes.

And now the rebels are angry with the AU for supporting Bashir against the ICC. SLA-Unity had the following to say:

“This resolution proves their failure to play a constructive role to resolve Darfur crisis and we call for the AU withdrawal from mediation and to leave the matter to the United Nations” (here)

Given that UNAMID is largely composed of AU citizens and coupled with the fact that most rebel factions already see UNAMID as being too close to the government, this does not bode well for the future safety of the “peacekeeping” mission. Being attacked from both sides would not be a pleasant experience, I imagine.