further unrest in west darfur

As if they were not bad enough, things seem to be further escalating in West Darfur…

Chad is making ever more aggressive forays into Sudanese territory as the effects of its own civil war continue to spill across the porous border. Once again Chadian airplanes have bombed locations near El Geneina and Chadian President Idris Derby is promising to send ground troops into Darfur.

Despite these incursions, my contacts here in Khartoum doubt that there will be a direct confrontation between the armies of Sudan and Chad. While a serious events, both states understand that the incurions are not meant as a direct confrontation. They should, rather, be seen in light of the conflicts between the many armed groups in the region, where neither state can make a credible claim to sovereignty. In other words, I do not believe the Sudanese army is going to spend too much blood or money defending a rebellious and anarchic region against the minor forays of a neighbor.

Further, if there ever were to be a major confrontation, it seems to be common knowledge that the Chadian army would not stand a chance. The Sudanese army is one of the largest and best equipped (not to mention battle hardened) in the region. While the Chadian army is already stretched thin, engaged in an all-out fight against rebels, Sudan is content to largely conduct its internal wars through local proxies, letting the army sit back and focus on securing Khartoum. Knowing all this, with its own survival in view, it is unlikely that the Chadian regime would allow a confrontation to occur. They are only entering Sudan because they know that there will not be a significant reaction and being careful to target only militias, not the Sudanese army itself. This is something both states can live with, but not without some heated rhetoric.

In a second item of interest, a UN peacekeeping supply convoy was attacked in West Darfur. Reports indicate that they were attacked by government aligned forces who “mistook” them for a rebel force. Not sure how one could mistake a UN convoy for a rebel force, but that’s the story! It will be interesting to see if this is an isolated incident or the beginning of a larger trend of putting UN personnel in the cross-hairs.